Davidoff's list of the top 30 baseball free agents -- and where they'll end up

This isn’t the NBA or NFL. Free agency tends to take more time to unfold in baseball. Some of the people on this list may very well be unsigned when spring training opens in February. But today marks the first day when teams can sign other clubs’ players, so the action should intensify shortly.

Oh, the list? Thanks for asking. These are my top 30 free agents this winter — ranked by value, rather than by how much money they’re going to make this winter. I compiled the rankings using the Wins Above Replacement measures, calculated by Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com, of the players’ 2011 and 2012 seasons.

The predictions of a player’s contract terms and destination come from reporting, looking at financial precedents and attempting to think along with the player, his representative and the involved team’s ownership and front office.

1. Michael Bourn, OF

The premier center fielder in a free-agent class stocked with outfielders. His agent, Scott Boras, has an excellent relationship with the Nationals. Prediction: Washington, five years, $85 million.

2. Melky Cabrera, OF

Yup, he ranks this high based on the way he played the prior two seasons. The question every team wants to know is, how much of that is attributable to PEDs? Prediction: Mets, one year, $4 million.

3. Torii Hunter, OF

He turns 38 next July, but he can still play — very well. He’d love a shot at the Big Apple. Prediction: Yankees, two years, $28 million.

4. Shane Victorino, OF

A subpar 2012 will deflate his value. As he’ll turn 32 later this month, clubs must decide which direction he’s heading.

Prediction: Atlanta, three years, $30 million.

5. Josh Hamilton, OF

He’ll get the most per year of anyone here. That’s a safe bet. He and the Rangers might need each other too much to part ways. Prediction: Texas, four years, $110 million.

6. Hiroki Kuroda, RHP

One scout from an NL team called him “the most underrated right-handed starter in baseball.” It’ll be a battle of the Coasts.

Prediction: Dodgers, two years, $32 million.

7. Mike Napoli, C-1B

Tailed off after a spectacular 2011. He’s an interesting blend — catches some, yet not all the time — who needs a flexible team to thrive. Prediction: Boston, three years, $33 million.

8. Zack Greinke, RHP

If Hamilton will get the most per year, then Greinke likely will land the largest overall package. The Angels badly want to retain him. Prediction: Angels, six years, $126 million.

9. Anibal Sanchez, RHP

Proved in Detroit he can handle the AL just fine. He turns 29 in February and has pitched between 195 and 196 ¹/3 innings the last three seasons. Prediction: Detroit, five years, $80 million.

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