Posted: 4:18 am
September 28, 2008
IT IS just one word, three syllables, eight letters and infinite debate.
If you want to get a heated argument going, then open the floor for politics, religion or the meaning of "valuable" in Most Valuable Player. This would all have been made easier if the originators of the honor simply had called it the Best Player award. We would have St. Louis' Albert Pujols and Cleveland's Grady Sizemore this year, and would be done with it.
Instead, sandwiched between a Most and Player is that devilish Valuable, which offers greater latitude for interpretation and, thus, those ugly disputes in sizing up candidates; disputes that mainly come down to sight vs. stats: What do you believe you see vs. what do the numbers say?
There is not enough space available here to fully discuss the issue. But my shorthand observation is that for too long, the mainstream - represented mainly by sports writers - was too closed-minded to statistical advances that helped better define players than long-held staples such as batting average, RBIs and pure gut feelings. Nevertheless, what has happened is the purveyors of the more sophisticated metrics have become just as intractable now, seeing the numbers as the be-all, end-all of discussion.
The zealotry, I believe, serves neither side well. The Red Sox are the majors' best-run front office because they do the best job of marrying eyeball scouting with state-of-the-art statistical analysis. I think the same marriage must take place in trying to grasp that devilish "valuable" in the midst of MVP.
We must use stats, of course. But we also have to remember that stats are evolving. In the past 10 years I have been implored to base my MVP decision on OPS, then OPS-plus, then VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), then win shares (if you're not aware of these terms, suffice it to say, each offers an interesting insight into players). My belief is these stats slowly will become outdated, as well, and we will look silly if we based awards on any without using other tools.
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